Projections by the European Copernicus Climate Change Service indicate it is now “virtually certain” that 2024 will set a new record as the hottest year on record, underscoring the urgent threat posed by climate change.
Driven primarily by human-induced global warming, 2024 temperatures are expected to surpass the symbolic 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels, marking an alarming milestone for climate science.
This unprecedented warming, exacerbated by natural factors like the El Niño weather pattern, comes just days before the UN’s COP29 climate conference in Azerbaijan.
Liz Bentley, Chief Executive of the Royal Meteorological Society, has warned that this record should serve as a clear “call to action” for governments worldwide to implement stronger climate policies.
The year’s first ten months have seen consistently high temperatures, with a record-breaking annual average now nearly guaranteed. Copernicus data estimates that 2024 will likely end up at least 1.55°C hotter than pre-industrial levels, shattering the previous record of 1.48°C set in 2023.
Scientists use pre-industrial temperatures—recorded from 1850 to 1900—as a baseline, representing the era before large-scale industrial activity began contributing heavily to global warming.
Breaching the 1.5°C benchmark across a full year brings the world closer to violating the long-term goal of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, in which nearly 200 nations pledged to cap temperature rise at 1.5°C.
The UN recently warned that without drastic emissions cuts, the planet could warm by over 3°C by century’s end, doubling the targeted limit and exacerbating climate impacts.
2024’s extreme temperatures were partly driven by El Niño, a natural pattern that temporarily warms the eastern Pacific Ocean, pushing extra heat into the atmosphere.
Although this phase concluded in April, temperatures have remained stubbornly high. The expected transition to the cooling La Niña phase might offer brief relief, but scientists warn this is only temporary as greenhouse gas levels continue to rise.
Professor Ed Hawkins of the University of Reading explained that this warming trend intensifies storms, increases heatwave severity, and exacerbates heavy rainfall, all of which pose significant risks to communities worldwide.
He stressed that stabilising temperatures by achieving net-zero emissions is the only path to halting further costly climate impacts.
With global warming now creating dangerous weather patterns and ecological shifts, governments face mounting pressure to support renewable energy, curb emissions, and implement sustainable policies.
COP29 represents a crucial opportunity for leaders to forge an actionable plan to avert the long-term consequences of an increasingly warming world.
