New research warns that without significant actions to counter and adapt to climate change, rising temperatures could lead to the deaths of millions in European cities by 2099.
Published in Nature Medicine, the study forecasts up to 2.3 million additional temperature-related deaths under severe global warming conditions, primarily affecting southern European cities including Athens, Madrid, and Rome.
However, implementing preventive measures could potentially reduce these fatalities by at least two-thirds.
The research, which examines 854 urban centres across 30 European countries, underscores the increased risk of heat-related deaths exacerbated by the urban “heat island effect,” where cities are generally warmer than rural areas due to heat-retaining infrastructure and sparse vegetation.
Contrary to previous theories suggesting climate change might decrease mortality by reducing cold-related deaths, the study finds that the rise in heat-related deaths will significantly outweigh any decrease in cold-weather fatalities.
In the worst-case scenario from 2015 to 2099, the surveyed cities could experience 5.83 million additional deaths due to heat, vastly surpassing the 3.48 million decrease in deaths due to cold.
Pierre Masselot, the study’s lead author and assistant professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, emphasizes the critical need for robust climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies, particularly in the Mediterranean region where the impact could be most severe.
The research also predicts substantial temperature-related mortality in other major cities, including Barcelona, Rome, Naples, Madrid, and Milan, with lesser impacts if effective climate change mitigation and adaptation measures are employed.
Following successive years of record temperatures, some cities are already adopting measures such as increased vegetation, cooling centres, and heat-resistant building regulations to cope with the heat.
These initiatives are part of broader efforts to mitigate the health impacts of extreme temperatures, which can exacerbate cardiovascular diseases, mental health issues, and other chronic conditions.
