The UK’s population is projected to rise to 72.5 million by 2032, with net migration identified as the primary factor behind the increase, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The latest figures forecast a 7.3% growth in the UK’s population over the next decade, a higher rate than the 6.1% rise recorded in the previous 10-year period.
The ONS predicts that net migration—the difference between people entering and leaving the country—will add 4.9 million people to the UK’s population by 2032.
Meanwhile, birth and death rates are expected to remain stable, though an ageing population will result in 1.7 million more pensioners.
Key projections for 2022-2032 include:
6.79 million births
6.81 million deaths
9.91 million people immigrating to the UK
4.98 million people emigrating from the UK
The data suggests that net migration will level off at 340,000 per year from 2028, slightly above previous estimates of 315,000. However, both figures are significantly lower than recent peaks.
In the year to June 2023, net migration reached 906,000, before dropping to 728,000 in the year to June 2024. Projections indicate a continued decline until 2028.
Downing Street has acknowledged the figures, reaffirming its commitment to reducing what it described as “staggeringly high” migration levels. However, the government ruled out setting an “arbitrary cap” on immigration.
A spokesperson for Labour leader Keir Starmer criticised previous migration caps, stating that they had “no meaningful impact” on reducing overall immigration levels. “Setting an arbitrary cap is not the best way to significantly reduce migration,” they added.
With immigration policies under scrutiny and an ageing population on the rise, the debate over the UK’s population growth is likely to remain a key political issue in the years ahead.
