Extreme weather events are set to cause significant food price volatility in 2025, supply chain analysts have warned. Cocoa and coffee prices have already surged by 163% and 103%, respectively, over the past year, as unpredictable climate conditions disrupt global agriculture.
Research by supply chain consultancy Inverto found a direct link between extreme weather and rising food costs, reinforcing concerns that climate breakdown could lead to long-term food shortages.
2024: The Hottest Year on Record Sparks Food Supply Concerns
With 2024 declared the hottest year on record, the global trend toward rising temperatures appears to be continuing into 2025. Inverto predicts that extreme weather events will persist, hitting crop yields and triggering further price spikes.
Key commodities have already been affected:
• Cocoa prices surged by 163% due to excessive rainfall and heatwaves in West Africa, where most of the world’s cocoa is produced.
• Coffee prices increased by 103%, driven by droughts and extreme heat in Brazil and Vietnam.
• Sunflower oil prices rose by 56%, following poor crop yields in Bulgaria and Ukraine, worsened by ongoing conflict with Russia.
• Orange juice and butter saw price hikes of more than 33%, while beef prices increased by over 25%.
Food Supply Chains Must Adapt, Experts Say
As climate-related disruptions become more frequent, experts stress that food manufacturers and retailers must diversify supply chains to avoid over-reliance on vulnerable regions.
Katharina Erfort, a supply chain strategist at Inverto, advised companies to expand sourcing strategies to mitigate the risks posed by extreme weather and geopolitical instability.
Rising Temperatures Threaten Global Food Security
According to climate scientists, Inverto’s findings align with long-standing predictions about the impact of climate change on agriculture.
Pete Falloon, a food security expert at the UK Met Office and University of Bristol, stated:
“Extreme weather events will continue to increase in severity and frequency as global temperatures rise. Crop production remains highly vulnerable, leading to ongoing disruptions in food supply and higher prices.”
Max Kotz, a researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, added that heat extremes are already influencing global food prices.
“Last year, extreme heat in East Asia drove up the price of rice in Japan and vegetables in China. Meanwhile, severe droughts in cocoa-producing West Africa and coffee-growing regions in Brazil and Vietnam caused significant price surges,” Kotz said.
He emphasized that until global greenhouse gas emissions reach net zero, the intensity of heat and drought events will continue to escalate, making food production more challenging and driving further inflation.
UK Government Warns of Food Insecurity Risks
In December, the UK government acknowledged that climate breakdown and rising food prices are contributing to increased hunger and malnutrition among low-income households.
With extreme weather disrupting global agricultural supply chains, policymakers face mounting pressure to enhance food security strategies and improve climate resilience in food production.
