A groundbreaking report by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has identified emerging disease threats in the UK that pose significant risks due to climate change, drug resistance, and the lack of vaccines or treatments. The list includes deadly pathogens from families such as bird flu, Ebola, plague, and even COVID-19.
The new UKHSA tool, the first of its kind, highlights 24 families of viruses and bacteria that require urgent scientific research and public health preparedness. These include the Filoviridae family (Ebola and Marburg), Flaviviridae (Zika and dengue), Orthomyxoviridae (avian flu), and Coronaviridae (which includes COVID-19), among others.
Although many of the pathogens are not currently found in the UK, experts warn that climate change could significantly alter the way these diseases spread. Dr. Isabel Oliver, UKHSA’s chief scientific officer, explained that “a major outbreak abroad could have global ripple effects, including serious health and socioeconomic impacts.”
Climate Change and Evolving Pathogens a Growing Concern
Dr. Oliver stressed that the agency’s focus isn’t just on pandemic potential, but on pathogens with limited diagnostics, treatments, or vaccines, and those affected by antimicrobial resistance or climate-related changes. “We’re seeing shifts in the distribution of mosquitoes and ticks due to climate change, which increases the risk of mosquito-borne viruses like dengue and Zika reaching the UK,” she noted.
UKHSA’s assessment tool is designed to steer scientific investment toward areas where it can have the greatest impact. Some pathogens listed, like norovirus from the Caliciviridae family, already pose a high domestic burden in the UK despite the lack of targeted treatments.
Not a Prediction, But a Call to Action
The agency emphasized that the report does not predict which pathogen will cause the next pandemic but instead identifies gaps in readiness. “This is about focusing research and development to close those gaps,” Oliver said. The tool will be updated regularly to reflect new scientific insights and risks.
The report also takes lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic. A recent inquiry into the UK’s pandemic response found that too much focus had been placed on the risk of influenza, delaying proper action when COVID-19 emerged.
Experts Warn of Future ‘Disease X’
Among the most concerning is the Paramyxoviridae family, which includes measles and the Nipah virus. According to Professor Mark Woolhouse of the University of Edinburgh, a novel virus similar to measles could prove even more dangerous than COVID-19 due to its high contagion rate and impact on children. “This kind of virus is the real threat public health agencies fear,” he said.
He also cautioned against tunnel vision: “There are many potential pandemic threats – so-called Disease X – and this report is a timely reminder not to put all our eggs in one basket.”
