UK Government figures reveal that Labour’s welfare overhaul could lead to an additional 400,000 people being signed off as unfit for work by 2030.
Despite pledges to reform the system and cut £5 billion from the benefits budget, official projections indicate that more people will qualify for the highest level of incapacity benefits than previously expected.
Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall defended the changes, stating they were necessary to fix a “broken” system inherited from the Conservatives.
She insisted that alongside the cuts, a £1 billion employment support programme would help long-term sick individuals re-enter the workforce. However, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has questioned the effectiveness of these plans, saying it has yet to see any evidence that they will boost employment.
The rise in incapacity benefit claimants is largely attributed to Labour’s decision to scrap Conservative proposals that would have required more people with mobility and mental health conditions to seek work.
Last autumn, official estimates projected that 2.6 million people would be receiving the top level of incapacity benefits by 2030.
However, revised figures now suggest that number will reach 3 million, even as payments for new claimants are halved.
Government sources told The Times that the increase is primarily due to Labour reversing planned reforms to the work capability assessment, which determines eligibility for incapacity benefits.
The OBR previously estimated that the Conservative changes would have resulted in 450,000 fewer claimants in the highest benefit category by the end of the decade.
The cuts have sparked anger among Labour MPs, but Kendall maintains they are necessary to eliminate what she describes as “perverse financial incentives” that encourage welfare dependency.
Critics, including Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride, have slammed the policy, arguing that it will leave more people reliant on benefits while failing to deliver on employment promises. Stride accused Labour of rushing through cuts to disability benefits simply to avoid breaking fiscal rules, rather than implementing meaningful reform.
With the debate intensifying, questions remain over whether Labour’s welfare shake-up will achieve its goals or deepen concerns over the growing number of long-term benefit claimants.
