Amid growing concerns over the accuracy of UK economic data, ministers have launched an independent review into the leadership, culture, and structure of the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The probe, led by former senior civil servant Sir Robert Devereux, aims to restore confidence in the UK’s official statistics following repeated errors and volatility in key economic indicators.
ONS Faces Review After Criticism Over Unreliable Economic Indicators
Commissioned by the Cabinet Office and the UK Statistics Authority (UKSA), the review will evaluate the organisational capability, structure, and leadership of the ONS after internal efforts failed to resolve data quality issues. The ONS, the UK’s largest official statistics producer, has come under fire from economists, policymakers, and institutions such as the Bank of England and the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).
The Labour Force Survey, a critical tool for measuring employment, has become increasingly unreliable due to declining response rates, leaving experts uncertain whether job numbers are rising or falling between quarters.
Flawed Data Hampers Productivity Forecasts and Fiscal Policy
Big revisions to the ONS’s estimates of GDP and employment have disrupted forecasts of productivity growth — a key metric influencing living standards and the UK’s fiscal outlook. At the recent Spring Statement, the OBR reduced its productivity forecast after new ONS figures showed an additional half a million people in the workforce, significantly altering estimates of output per hour worked.
David Miles of the OBR noted that changes in productivity assumptions could add or subtract tens of billions of pounds from Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ fiscal headroom, dramatically impacting her ability to meet budgetary goals.
Calls Grow for Timely, Accurate Economic Snapshots
OBR Chair Richard Hughes criticised the current data environment, stating, “Instead of a snapshot of where the economy just was, we get an incomplete picture from different time points.” He stressed that policymakers need consistent, up-to-date information to plan ahead, especially as the government leans into performance targets to drive economic growth.
The Cabinet Office confirmed the review is intended to “support ONS staff and improve the timeliness and accuracy of UK economic data,” which it called essential for effective policy-making.
Broader Review of Economic Statistics Underway
Separately, the Office for Statistics Regulation is conducting a systemic review of economic statistics and will publish an interim report in April. UKSA Chair Sir Robert Chote welcomed Devereux’s appointment, calling the review “an opportunity to ensure the ONS delivers its best in a challenging environment.”
The ONS has responded by pledging to cooperate fully and will publish a strategic business plan later this week to outline its priorities for improving key statistics.
Data Quality Critical to Starmer Government’s Performance Targets
With the Labour government reinstating hard targets to improve central government performance—a hallmark of the New Labour era—the need for reliable, timely statistics has become more urgent. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has also warned of the “substantial problem” caused by poor participation data, which complicates monetary policy decisions.
The outcome of the review could reshape how UK statistics are produced and used across government, business, and public institutions.
