The Labour is at risk of losing a substantial number of seats to Reform UK across England and Wales, as disillusionment grows among voters with mainstream parties. This analysis was revealed in a new study shared with The Observer.
Amidst private discussions among top Labour officials about a “change of era,” there is a noticeable trend of moderate voters gravitating towards Nigel Farage’s Reform party.
According to the latest research, if an election were to be held today, Reform UK would capture 76 seats under the current voting patterns, with 60 of these being taken from Labour.
These include critical constituencies along the “red wall”, as well as in Wales and southern England.
The study, conducted by polling firm Focaldata for the Hope Not Hate campaign group, suggests that even a slight increase in voter shift from Labour to Reform could result in an additional 76 Labour-held seats switching allegiance.
This vulnerability is exacerbated by the narrow margins in many Labour seats and could be influenced by various factors such as increased turnout for Reform, a surge in its support, or a decrease in Labour voter participation.
Focaldata’s analysis, which involved a substantial sample of almost 18,000 voters, indicates a changing profile among Reform supporters.
Unlike previous Farage backers or those who supported UKIP or the Brexit Party, a significant portion of current Reform supporters—about one in five—are described as “moderate, interventionist” voters who hold positive views on immigration and favour a strong state but are disenchanted with the mainstream parties’ effectiveness.
With senior Labour figures increasingly concerned about the threat from Reform, the political narrative is focusing on the perceived failure of established parties to enhance the lives of ordinary citizens.
The rise of Reform is now seen as a direct challenge to Labour, especially under Keir Starmer’s leadership, as the party navigates its new role in government amidst growing public demand for change.
The implications of this shift are profound, suggesting a move towards a more fluid four-party system. The Focaldata study projects that with just a 3% swing to Reform from both Labour and the Conservatives, Reform could control 169 seats.
This represents a significant increase in support from both traditional Conservative voters and previously loyal Labour voters, particularly in constituencies with large white working-class demographics.
This evolving political dynamic points to a landscape where traditional party allegiances are being reconsidered, highlighting a period of significant electoral volatility and the potential for dramatic shifts in the coming elections.
