David Lammy has cautioned that failing to confront Russia over Ukraine could cost the UK billions, as tensions mount over Europe’s role in shaping the future of the conflict.
Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, the Foreign Secretary emphasised that Ukraine is on an “irreversible pathway towards NATO”, warning that the financial burden of inaction far outweighs the cost of continued support.
Lammy drew comparisons between the Cold War era, when countries spent approximately 7 per cent of GDP on defence, and today’s UK defence spending of just 2.3 per cent.
He argued that avoiding a firm stance against Russian aggression would lead to even greater financial and security costs for Britain and its allies.
“Don’t think that not meeting the challenge now somehow saves us money down the line,” Mr Lammy said on Saturday. “If Ukraine were to fail, the costs would be considerably more.”
At the same conference, Keith Kellogg, the US President’s special envoy for Ukraine, revealed that while Europe would be consulted, it would ultimately be excluded from future peace negotiations.
Kellogg made it clear that from a realist perspective, European nations would not be at the table when key decisions about Ukraine’s future are made.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky proposed the creation of a unified European military force, stating that Europe must no longer rely solely on the United States for its defence.
Zelensky warned that the “old days” of American support for Europe may be over, and insisted that Ukraine must have a say in any ceasefire agreement.
Anticipating a potential shift in US policy under Donald Trump, Lammy sought to appeal to the former president’s deal-making ethos.
He argued that the best security guarantee for Ukraine against Russian aggression would be binding US industry, business, and defence capabilities to Ukraine’s future, ensuring long-term American influence and stability in the region.
“That is what will make Putin sit up and pay attention, and that is what’s attractive to a US president who knows how to get a good deal,” Lammy added.
Lammy underscored that the conflict in Ukraine is not just about Ukraine—it is a battle for Europe’s security. He noted that Europe’s combined GDP contribution to Ukraine’s defence is currently around 0.01 per cent, calling for greater European investment in security.
He warned that even after a negotiated peace, Vladimir Putin would remain a persistent threat, making it imperative for Europe to continue strengthening its defences.
“We know too that even when we get to a negotiated peace, Putin will not go away. So this is an existential question for Europe.
“We meet that question alongside the United States. At an appropriate time, we will get into a debate about security guarantees.”
Alongside foreign ministers from France, Germany, and Poland, Lammy reaffirmed that Ukraine’s NATO membership remains a long-term goal, describing it as “the cheapest and best mechanism to secure peace” in both Europe and the wider Euro-Atlantic region.
He also stressed that the economic repercussions of Ukraine’s failure would far exceed the current cost of military aid, a point being discussed among European leaders and Treasury departments.
“One of the messages that we’re deadly serious about is, if Ukraine were to fail, the costs would be considerably more,” Lammy stated.
