By 2050, forecasts indicate that over half of the global adult population and a third of children, teenagers, and young adults will be either overweight or obese, according to a comprehensive study published in The Lancet journal, encompassing over 200 countries.
This study suggests a sharp increase in obesity rates, particularly in lower-income nations, throughout the upcoming decades.
Urgent governmental intervention could avert what experts label a “profound tragedy,” they argue.
Already by 2021, nearly half of all adults globally—equating to one billion men and 1.11 billion women aged 25 and above—were classified as overweight or obese, a figure that has doubled since 1990.
Should current trends persist, the percentage of overweight or obese adults is expected to escalate to approximately 57.4% for men and 60.3% for women by 2050.
Notably, China, India, and the USA are projected to have the largest populations of overweight or obese individuals by then, with figures reaching 627 million, 450 million, and 214 million, respectively.
Moreover, sub-Saharan Africa is likely to see a more than 250% increase in such cases, totalling 522 million by 2050.
Nigeria is anticipated to experience a significant surge, with numbers potentially tripling from 36.6 million in 2021 to 141 million.
While the study does not account for potential impacts of new weight loss medications, which could significantly influence future trends, the necessity for immediate governmental action is emphasized to mitigate a potential healthcare disaster.
Led by Professor Emmanuela Gakidou of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, the research offers detailed, country-specific estimates to aid in the prioritization of intervention and prevention strategies targeting populations at greatest risk.
The research highlights a current spike in obesity rates, particularly among the youth, with rates more than doubling between 1990 and 2021 for children and younger teenagers (from 8.8% to 18.1%) and younger adults (from 9.9% to 20.3%). By 2050, one in three young individuals is expected to be impacted.
Dr. Jessica Kerr, co-lead author from the Murdoch Children’s Research Institute in Australia, underscores the critical challenges posed to healthcare systems in the forthcoming years.
Immediate action could prevent a complete transition to global obesity among children and adolescents, targeting specific regions and demographics with tailored obesity prevention strategies.
This study serves as a call to action to prevent intergenerational transmission of obesity and stave off a cascade of severe health issues and substantial economic and societal costs for future generations.
