Concerns that imposing VAT on private school fees would trigger a mass migration of pupils to state schools have been disproven, according to the latest data from councils across England.
Despite warnings from critics, including former Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, that up to 90,000 children could transfer to the state sector if a 20% VAT charge was introduced, most local authorities report no noticeable impact on state school applications for the upcoming academic year.
No Evidence of School Place Shortages
Predictions of widespread shortages in state school places have not materialised. Instead, figures for Year 7 admissions in 2025 show an increase in the proportion of families securing their first-choice school, contradicting fears of overwhelmed state institutions.
A government spokesperson commented: “Despite all the scaremongering from private school advocates and their Conservative and Reform allies, there has been no mass exodus from private education. This government is committed to ensuring a high-quality state education for all working families.”
Experts had previously suggested that the transition from primary to secondary school would be the most likely point for parents to switch to state education following a rise in private school fees.
A significant shift could have led to more competition for school places and impacted the £1.5 billion the government expects to generate from the new tax in its first year.
London and National Trends Show Minimal Impact
In London, 71.6% of families received their first-choice secondary school for September 2025, a one-percentage-point increase from the previous year. Applications through the Pan-London admissions board also fell for the second consecutive year, further indicating no surge in demand for state school places.
London Councils, which represents the capital’s 33 local authorities, confirmed there had been “no obvious impact” from the VAT change.
Surrey, another area with a high proportion of independent school pupils, recorded a modest increase in applications from private school families—rising from 608 in 2024 to 664 in 2025. However, the percentage of pupils securing their first-choice school remained comparable to previous years.
A wider survey of 70 councils outside London revealed that 44 had seen a rise in first-choice offers compared to 2024, two remained unchanged, and 24 experienced a decline.
Isolated Drops in First-Choice Offers Unrelated to VAT
A handful of areas with significant private school populations did see a drop in first-choice offers, but local authorities have dismissed any direct link to VAT changes.
In Gloucestershire, where the first-choice offer rate fell from 86% to 81%, a council spokesperson attributed the shift to a “bulge year” rather than any VAT-driven migration from private to state education.
Similarly, in Kensington and Chelsea—the London borough with the highest proportion of private school pupils—the first-choice rate dropped from 72.5% to 66.7%.
Catherine Faulks, the borough’s lead member for family and children’s services, commented:
“The number of children securing their top-choice school fluctuates annually due to various factors.”
“While we are monitoring the potential impact of VAT on private schools, there is no immediate concern. Some secondary schools in the borough are experiencing higher oversubscription levels, but this is part of a broader trend.”
Conversely, other London boroughs with a strong private school presence, including Hammersmith and Fulham, Richmond upon Thames, and Wandsworth, recorded an increase in first-choice offers. Kent, another county with a large number of independent school pupils, also saw a rise in first-preference state school placements.
Long-Term Impact Remains Uncertain
While the short-term impact appears negligible, the Institute for Fiscal Studies has projected that VAT on private school fees could lead to a 3-7% decline in private school enrolment over the medium to long term. However, early indicators suggest that fears of an immediate surge in state school demand were overstated.
As the government monitors the ongoing effects of the policy, the debate over private school taxation and its broader implications for the education sector is set to continue.
