Northern Ireland is on track to experience a demographic shift that will see the number of pensioners surpass the number of schoolchildren by 2030, according to new figures from the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA).
Between 2022 and 2030, the population of those aged 65 and over is expected to rise from 315,000 to 356,000. In contrast, the number of children aged 15 and under will fall from 389,000 to 349,000.
This shift is driven by increased life expectancy and falling birth rates, leading to significant challenges for public services, particularly in education.
Dunseverick Primary School in County Antrim is already witnessing this change. The school’s principal, Leanne Smyth, revealed that pupil numbers have dropped by over a third in the past 19 years.
“Family sizes have changed dramatically. We used to see families with four children, but now it’s rare to even have three siblings. Most of our pupils come from families with only two children or are an only child,” Ms Smyth explained.
She added that schools are now having to market themselves to attract pupils, something that was unheard of two decades ago.
“When I started there was no such thing as an open night for a primary school. That’s now one of our main events in the school year,” she said.
With fewer children and more older people, the education system is under pressure. Gareth Hetherington from Ulster University’s Economic Policy Centre warned that Stormont may have to make difficult decisions about merging or closing schools.
“While communities celebrate when their local school is saved from closure, spreading funding too thinly makes life harder for schools that are still viable in the long run,” he said.
In County Tyrone, the Dungannon West Recycled Teenagers group has been supporting older residents for nearly two decades, helping to reduce isolation and loneliness.
Sean Kerr, the group’s chairperson, highlighted the importance of staying active and socially connected.
“We have a great time, though we could do with a few more men joining. We try to go on trips two or three times a year,” he said.
Frances Hamilton, who recently joined the group, added that staying active is key to avoiding loneliness in later life.
“Many people, when they reach a certain age, just stay at home and forget there’s a world outside. You need to keep active and social to avoid falling into a rut,” she said.
NISRA projects that by 2032, the number of people aged 65 and over will increase by more than 25%, rising from 335,000 to 425,000.
This shift will put further strain on Northern Ireland’s already stretched healthcare system. According to the UK Office for Budget Responsibility, spending on hospital services rises significantly from the mid-40s onwards.
A report by the Nuffield Trust, a health think tank, stressed the need for Northern Ireland to make the most of its healthcare budget by tackling inefficiencies and improving service quality.
The report also raised the question of whether society is willing to accept higher taxes to meet the growing demand for healthcare services.
With an ageing population and fewer young people entering the education system, Northern Ireland faces tough decisions in the years ahead.
From school closures to increased healthcare spending, the region must adapt to ensure both the younger and older generations receive the support they need.
