London is set to face a sustained drop in demand for school places over the next four years, raising serious concerns about further school closures, reduced subject choice and growing educational inequality across the capital, according to a new report from London Councils.
Data from the latest School Capacity Survey, covering all 32 London boroughs, shows a continuing fall in pupil numbers in both primary and secondary schools, with inner London experiencing the steepest declines.
Projections for the period from 2025/26 to 2029/30 indicate a 3.8 per cent fall in demand for Year 7 places and a 2.5 per cent fall in reception places across London. The situation is more acute in inner London, where Year 7 demand is forecast to drop by 7.6 per cent, while reception demand is expected to fall by 6.4 per cent.
For the first time, the decline in demand for Year 7 places is greater than for reception, pointing to a longer-term demographic shift that could have lasting consequences for secondary education across the capital.
Because school funding is linked directly to pupil numbers, falling rolls are expected to translate into significant financial losses. London Councils estimates a reduction of around £15 million in primary school funding and £30 million in secondary school funding over the period.
These pressures come on top of five years of financial strain that have already led to around 90 school closures or mergers across London. In some areas, schools have also reduced their Published Admission Numbers in an effort to remain financially viable.
Tighter budgets are forcing many schools to make difficult decisions, including narrowing the curriculum, reducing subject options, cutting enrichment and extracurricular activities, limiting school trips, and reducing teaching and support staff. Nationally, more than half of secondary school leaders have already reported cutting staff or restricting GCSE option choices as a result of financial pressures.
London Councils is urging the government to ensure schools receive sustainable and adequate funding to protect education standards and meet pupils’ needs despite changing demographics.
Cllr Ian Edwards, Executive Member for Children and Young People at London Councils, said boroughs are working to manage falling rolls while protecting London’s long-term education capacity, particularly in the context of housing growth and future demand.
The organisation is calling on ministers to work closely with local authorities and education partners to provide targeted support for the secondary sector. It is also urging action to help maintain a broad and balanced curriculum, protect enrichment opportunities, and safeguard inclusive SEND provision.
London Councils has warned that without intervention, the capital risks losing vital school capacity, specialist expertise and diversity of provision at a time when many families depend on strong local education services.