UK defence spending increase plans are being actively examined by Prime Minister Keir Starmer, with Downing Street considering whether to bring forward a major rise in military funding at a potential cost of billions of pounds. The BBC has learned that officials are exploring whether the government could meet its longer-term defence spending ambition years earlier than originally planned, amid rising global security threats and pressure from NATO allies.
The discussions come as the prime minister warned world leaders that the UK must respond more rapidly to escalating dangers, particularly from Russia. Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, Starmer said it was now clear Britain would have to “spend more, faster” to meet the scale of the challenge.
Existing Targets and Accelerated Ambitions
The government committed last year to spending 2.5% of gross domestic product on core defence by April 2027. Starmer also set out an ambition to increase defence spending to 3% of GDP in the next parliament.
However, sources have told the BBC that the prime minister’s advisers are now examining proposals to reach the 3% target by the end of the current parliament, which could run until 2029. No final decision has been taken, and the Treasury is understood to be cautious about the scale of the financial commitment involved.
The idea was discussed at a recent meeting between the prime minister and senior advisers, where they reviewed how best to meet existing defence commitments as part of the long-delayed defence investment plan.
Rising Costs and Budget Pressures
The push to reconsider defence spending timelines has been driven in part by mounting evidence that current budgets may not be sufficient. Reports last month suggested the Ministry of Defence required an additional £28bn over the next four years to meet existing obligations.
Sir Richard Knighton, the chief of the defence staff, told MPs in January that financial constraints were limiting the pace and scope of military modernisation. “We cannot do everything we would want to do, as quickly as we want to do it, within the context of the budget we have set,” he said.
Officials have acknowledged that earlier assumptions about defence costs no longer hold, as inflation, equipment upgrades and expanded commitments push spending higher.
The Cost of Moving Faster
Bringing forward the 3% of GDP target would carry a heavy price tag. The Office for Budget Responsibility calculated last year that reaching 3% of GDP by 2029-30 would require an additional £17.3bn per year.
Economists at the Institute for Fiscal Studies have estimated the extra cost could be slightly lower—around £13bn to £14bn annually—once already planned spending increases are taken into account.
The UK currently spends about 2.3% of GDP on defence, equivalent to roughly £66bn a year. Along with other NATO allies, Britain has also committed to spending 3.5% of GDP on core defence by 2035.
Strategic Rationale and International Pressure
In Munich, Starmer made a sustained case for higher defence investment, arguing that military strength was essential in an era of growing instability. “We must build our hard power because that is the currency of our age,” he said, adding that increased spending would reduce over-reliance on the United States and strengthen cooperation with European allies in supporting Ukraine.
The prime minister also framed defence investment as a means of reinforcing Euro-Atlantic security and responding to Russia’s aggression. One defence source described the Munich speech as reading “like an argument for increased defence spending with the announcement left out.”
Meeting the 3% target earlier than planned would be welcomed in Washington, where US officials have privately urged the UK to move faster in boosting its military capabilities.
Treasury Concerns and Funding Options
Whitehall sources say internal debates continue over how such an increase could be funded. Potential options reportedly discussed include reallocating money from overseas development assistance, net-zero climate programmes or major infrastructure projects such as the high-speed rail line between London and Birmingham.
Borrowing is another option, but Treasury officials are wary of breaching fiscal rules and unsettling financial markets. One source said a specialist group had been established within the Ministry of Defence to examine ways of meeting defence needs without breaking government borrowing targets.
Treasury sources, however, insist there is no formal plan being blocked and say discussions about future defence spending are being led collectively by the prime minister across government.
Political Context and Next Steps
Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper told the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg that the government had already committed to the largest sustained increase in defence spending since the Cold War, but acknowledged more would be needed.
A Ministry of Defence spokesperson said the government remained focused on delivering for defence, highlighting an additional £5bn allocated this financial year alone.
While no announcement is imminent, officials say the defence investment plan is nearing completion, and the question of accelerating spending is likely to remain at the centre of political debate in the months ahead.