A growing number of young people in England fear they could face long-term unemployment, with many losing confidence in their future prospects, according to a new report.
Research by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) found that people aged 16 to 21 are significantly less optimistic about their chances of success than they were a decade ago, amid rising concerns over employment opportunities, housing costs and mental health.
The report highlights a widening generational divide, with younger people far less likely than older adults to believe that hard work will lead to success.
Just one in four people aged 16 to 29 agreed with the statement that “everyone has a fair chance to go as far as their talent and hard work will take them”. By comparison, 35% of people aged 50 to 69 shared that view, rising to more than 40% among those aged over 70.
The findings come as policymakers become increasingly concerned about the growing number of young people who are not in education, employment or training (NEET). Earlier this year, the number exceeded one million for the first time in a decade.
Former Labour minister Alan Milburn is currently leading a government review into the issue, with recommendations expected later this year.
In an interim report, Milburn warned Britain risks creating a “lost generation” and could see the number of NEETs rise by 25% to 1.25 million by 2030 if urgent action is not taken.
According to the IPPR, declining confidence among young people is not only a social concern but could also damage the economy by discouraging education, career development and saving.
Ellie Harris, Head of Children and Young People at the IPPR, said: “Young people are telling us clearly that the deal no longer adds up.”
“For too many, the promise that hard work will lead to security and opportunity no longer feels credible.”
“This is not simply a crisis affecting a small minority. Confidence is falling across England, across social groups, and across genders.”
The report analysed data from the long-running Understanding Society survey and found that the proportion of 16- to 21-year-olds who rated their chances of future success at 20% or less rose from 2% in 2015-17 to 6% in 2023-25.
Meanwhile, the share of young people who believe they have an 80% or greater chance of experiencing long-term unemployment during their lifetime more than tripled to 7% over the same period.
Researchers suggest several factors may be contributing to the decline in confidence, including the lingering effects of austerity, worsening mental health, changing online environments and rising economic pressures.
The report states: “During the mid-2010s, several pressures were intensifying at once: the effects of austerity were becoming more visible, the online information environment was being reshaped by personalised algorithms, and young people’s mental health was beginning to deteriorate.”
It also argues that many young people may simply be responding realistically to challenges around them, including increasing youth unemployment and soaring housing costs.
Mental health emerged as a major factor in the research. The think tank estimates that around four in ten women and three in ten men aged 16 to 24 experience poor mental health.
Among young people struggling with mental health issues, only 24% believe they have a good chance of succeeding in life, compared with 48% of their peers.
The report comes as Prime Minister Keir Starmer is expected to announce new restrictions on social media use for under-16s, amid growing concerns about its impact on children’s mental wellbeing.
Responding to the findings, a government spokesperson said: “We recognise too many young people have been locked out of opportunity. That’s why we are bringing forward a £2.5bn youth employment support package to help almost 1 million young people either earn or learn.”
The spokesperson added: “We are also expanding youth hubs to every corner of Great Britain to provide crucial skills, job and housing support for the future generation.”
The IPPR research forms part of its wider State of a Generation project, which examines the challenges facing young people across Britain and the long-term consequences for society and the economy.