The UK should commit to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 81% below 1990 levels by 2035, according to the Climate Change Committee (CCC). This advisory comes ahead of COP29, where the UK government is expected to announce its new “nationally determined contribution” (NDC) under the Paris Agreement. The recommendation aligns with the CCC’s legally binding sixth carbon budget, aimed at keeping global temperature rise within 1.5C.
The proposed target includes emissions from international aviation and shipping, marking a shift in the UK’s climate strategy. Secretary of State Ed Miliband sought guidance on whether to incorporate these emissions, following the approach in the UK’s first NDC in 2020.
The CCC stresses that the target is “ambitious, deliverable, and consistent” with net-zero goals, providing a roadmap for achieving significant emissions cuts. The UK’s existing Climate Change Act mandates a series of five-year carbon budgets, creating “stepping stones” towards a net-zero target by 2050. The CCC recommends reducing emissions to 965 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e) between 2033 and 2037, with an annual average of 193MtCO2e, down from 522MtCO2e in 2019.
To achieve these goals, the CCC highlights necessary actions, including investment in low-carbon technologies like electric vehicles, heat pumps, and renewable energy sources. These efforts, it notes, will require reversing recent policy rollbacks, addressing planning barriers, and making electricity more affordable.
The report also proposes new government initiatives, such as a “Better Opportunities Fund” to finance climate-related projects and adjustments in public procurement processes to consider social mobility and sustainability. Additionally, the CCC calls for the UK to lead on global decarbonization efforts for international aviation and shipping, as these sectors are projected to become major emission sources by 2050.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer is expected to unveil the UK’s NDC at COP29, pledging the UK’s commitment to an ambitious climate target consistent with the 1.5C limit.
