In its latest “State of the Climate” report, released as the COP29 climate summit kicks off in Baku, Azerbaijan, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) presents a stark warning. The report highlights that the decade from 2015 to 2024 is likely to be the hottest on record. For 16 straight months, from June 2023 to September 2024, global average temperatures exceeded previous records by significant margins, according to the findings.
Between January and September 2024, the average global air temperature soared 1.54 degrees Celsius (2.77 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels. This troubling rise means that the world has temporarily breached a key temperature threshold established by the Paris Agreement.
What Breaching 1.5 Degrees Celsius Means
The Paris Agreement, adopted at the COP21 summit in 2015, aims to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius, while striving to keep it under 1.5 degrees. Scientists have long cautioned that crossing this 1.5-degree threshold is a critical tipping point that could lead to irreversible climate damage and trigger feedback loops causing further warming. A separate report from the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service also predicts that the 2024 annual temperature will surpass this level.
“It’s the relentless pace of warming that is particularly concerning,” noted Carlo Buontempo, Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service. However, the WMO emphasized that surpassing the 1.5-degree threshold remains a temporary occurrence and does not signify failure to achieve the Paris Agreement’s goals. The organization estimates long-term global warming to be around 1.3 degrees Celsius.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo explained that short-term global temperature spikes can be influenced by natural phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña, and these fluctuations should not be equated to permanent climate targets. Nevertheless, the WMO underscores the need for urgent action, warning that every fraction of a degree of warming brings greater risks, including more frequent and severe climate-related disasters such as heatwaves, floods, droughts, and wildfires.
Record-Breaking Emissions and Rising Sea Levels
The WMO report also highlights record greenhouse gas emissions, ocean heat, and glacial melt. In 2023, carbon dioxide levels reached their highest ever, with preliminary data indicating a continued increase in 2024. Oceans, which absorb 90% of excess heat, hit record temperatures in 2023—a trend continuing into 2024. This oceanic heat, according to experts, will have long-term impacts that last for centuries or even millennia.
Meanwhile, glaciers worldwide are melting at unprecedented rates. In 2023 alone, glacial ice loss was five times the volume of water held in the Dead Sea. This accelerated melting is a major contributor to rising sea levels, which are now increasing at more than double the rate seen from 1993 to 2002.
Human and Economic Consequences
The impacts of a warming Earth are already being felt worldwide. Throughout 2024, extreme weather events have resulted in devastating human and economic costs, including deadly heatwaves, catastrophic flooding, wildfires, tropical cyclones, and prolonged droughts. Communities are grappling with these intensified disasters, which the WMO says have deepened inequalities, threatened food security, worsened water scarcity, and displaced millions.
“Climate catastrophe is exacerbating health crises, deepening inequality, jeopardizing sustainable development, and undermining global stability,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres, emphasizing that vulnerable populations are most at risk.
Urgent Climate Action Needed
To counter these escalating threats, the WMO stresses the need for immediate and decisive action to cut greenhouse gas emissions and enhance climate resilience. Notable progress has been made in climate services and early warning systems, with initiatives such as Early Warnings for All (EW4All) helping more than 100 countries develop multi-hazard early warning systems. These systems have proven effective in saving lives and protecting livelihoods during extreme weather events.
However, WMO leaders insist that stronger, more coordinated efforts are required. “Every additional increment of global warming heightens climate risks and impacts,” Saulo said, calling for urgent measures to curb emissions and boost resilience against future crises.
