A confidential memo from senior Conservative strategists has revealed why top aides urged Rishi Sunak not to call an early general election, warning that voters were unlikely to feel “financially optimistic” during the summer months.
The document, authored by election campaign director Isaac Levido and Tory strategist Michael Brooks, highlighted the risks of rushing to the polls and recommended an autumn election instead.
Dated 3 April, seven weeks before the eventual election announcement, the memo was described as a blunt assessment of the political landscape. According to the strategists, an autumn election in October or November would provide the Conservatives with the best chance of improving their position.
“We need as much time as possible for economic metrics to improve and for voters to feel better off,” the memo stated.
“An earlier election gives us less scope to communicate economic progress, as voters are less likely to feel financially optimistic.”
The strategists also pointed to the psychological benefits of summer, citing factors such as holidays, better weather, lower energy bills, and events like the Euro 2024 football tournament and the Olympics, which could boost public sentiment.
However, delaying the election was not without risks, the memo noted. The Conservatives could face internal divisions, policy distractions, and challenges such as strikes or increased Channel crossings.
By this point, Sunak and his team had abandoned hopes that the Bank of England might cut interest rates to ease economic pressure. The memo argued that an early election would force the party to lean heavily on divisive policy issues rather than economic achievements.
“The election will be a fist fight, and we want to be able to throw punches with both fists – our economy fist, and our policy platform/reform fist,” the memo said.
“In summer, our ability to fight on the economy will be weaker, meaning we will have to punch harder with our reform fist to hurt Labour and inject urgency into the campaign. Whereas in autumn, our ability to throw punches on the economy will be stronger, meaning we can hit Labour hard with both fists.”
The memo’s contents were revealed in The Sunday Times as part of excerpts from Tim Shipman’s upcoming book, Out: How Brexit Got Done and the Tories Were Undone. The book examines the Conservative Party’s electoral challenges and the shifting political climate in the post-Brexit era.
The revelation sheds light on the internal debates surrounding the timing of the election and the strategic calculations aimed at maximising the Conservatives’ chances in a high-stakes contest against Labour.
