The prison population in England and Wales could surge past 100,000 within five years, according to official projections.
The Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has cited a confluence of rising prosecutions, tougher sentencing policies, and an unprecedented number of inmates held on remand as key drivers behind the anticipated increase.
Currently, the prison population stands at 86,000, but new figures released on Thursday estimate it could rise to between 95,700 and 105,200 by March 2029, with a central projection of 100,800.
The MoJ attributed the growth to several factors, including a continued rise in the number of charges and prosecutions, an increase in cases reaching court, and the swelling remand population, which has soared by 87% since 2019 to a record high.
The department also highlighted changes in sentencing practices aimed at keeping serious offenders incarcerated for longer periods.
Concerns over prison overcrowding have intensified following warnings from the National Audit Office (NAO) earlier this week. The government’s efforts to expand prison capacity are reportedly falling behind schedule and could cost billions more than initially anticipated.
The NAO’s report revealed that Boris Johnson’s pledge to deliver 20,000 new prison places by 2026 is now expected to be completed five years late, potentially leaving a shortfall of 12,400 places by the end of 2027. The expansion is projected to cost between £9.4 billion and £10.1 billion—at least £4 billion over budget.
Despite recent measures, including the early release of thousands of inmates to ease overcrowding, prisons are forecast to hit critical capacity by July next year.
Currently, operational capacity across England and Wales stands at 88,852, leaving just 2,793 spaces available. An additional 1,350 spaces are kept as a contingency for sudden surges in inmate numbers.
As of this week, the prison population is just 2.8% shy of its September record high of 88,521. This precarious situation underscores the urgency of addressing capacity shortfalls.
The MoJ is pinning hopes on a forthcoming sentencing review to curb the demand for prison places, but the NAO has criticised current plans as “insufficient” to meet future needs.
The government now faces mounting pressure to balance public safety, fiscal responsibility, and the humane treatment of inmates in an increasingly stretched system.
The delayed expansion and rising costs have significant implications for taxpayers. With construction projects advancing slower than demand, the government could be forced to explore alternative solutions or risk exacerbating the crisis.
As the prison system edges towards its limit, the challenge of managing the rising inmate population will remain a contentious issue in the years to come.
