US military aircraft are continuing to land at British airbases despite the UK Government refusing to authorise American strikes on Iran from sovereign UK territory.
Open-source flight data analysed by *The i Paper* shows a sharp rise in US military activity across UK and European bases, signalling what Nato officials have described as the early stages of a “significant air campaign” in the Middle East.
The Government is understood to have withheld permission for the United States to use key British-controlled bases — including RAF Fairford and Diego Garcia — as launchpads for potential military action against Iran.
The decision reportedly followed a phone call between Prime Minister Keir Starmer and US President Donald Trump on Tuesday evening.
While Washington would require British consent to launch strikes from sovereign UK bases, the Pentagon retains greater autonomy to move equipment through leased US facilities on British soil, including RAF Mildenhall and RAF Lakenheath.
Despite the refusal, at least 28 US military flights have passed through UK and Cypriot bases in recent days as part of what appears to be one of the largest American force build-ups in the region for decades.
According to verified flight-tracking data, the US has deployed at least 76 transport and tanker aircraft in the past week alone — more than 30 aircraft above the estimated size of Britain’s entire RAF tanker and transport fleet.
Aircraft have also utilised Prestwick Airport in Scotland as a transatlantic refuelling hub. Strategic tanker planes, including Boeing KC-135R Stratotanker, capable of transferring up to 200,000lbs of fuel mid-air, have been landing across Europe and the Middle East at far higher levels than normal.
Fighter jets are believed to have accompanied some tanker movements, though US combat aircraft typically disable public transponders, making tracking difficult.
Satellite imagery shows heavy activity at Naval Station Rota, a key US logistics hub in southern Spain, where at least 15 Stratotankers were recorded this week. Additional tanker aircraft have landed in Sofia, Bulgaria, where civilian flights were temporarily suspended.
In total, *The i Paper* verified that at least 128 US military aircraft have flown into Europe and the Middle East since the start of the year — marking one of the most significant American deployments in the region in decades.
Two Nato officials, shown the data, concluded the movements resemble preparations for a “significant air campaign”. One alliance analyst estimated there was a 70 per cent chance of US strikes on Iran in the coming days, although they cautioned it remained difficult to judge “Trump’s intent [to] bluff or commitment to strike” from military movements alone.
The military activity comes amid renewed nuclear negotiations between Washington and Tehran in Switzerland.
Speaking earlier this week, Trump warned: “Should Iran decide not to make a deal, it may be necessary for the United States to use Diego Garcia, and the [RAF] Airfield location in Fairford [Gloucestershire], in order to eradicate a potential attack by a highly unstable and dangerous regime.”
US Vice President JD Vance said the President had “set some red lines that the Iranians are not yet willing to actually acknowledge and work through”.
Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, warned: “the Americans should know that if they start a war, this time it will be a regional war”. Iranian forces have also staged naval drills named “Smart Control of Hormuz Strait”.
The UK’s reluctance to permit strike launches is understood to stem from concerns over breaching international law. Authorising strikes from sovereign UK territory could implicate Britain as a supporting party with “knowledge of the circumstances of the internationally wrongful act”.
The refusal reportedly caused dissatisfaction in the White House, with Trump publicly criticising Starmer’s agreement to hand sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius while leasing back the Diego Garcia airbase.
Emma Salisbury, senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, said the scale of deployments meant a “military option” was “firmly and credibly on the table, giving extra leverage to the Americans in their negotiations with the Iranian regime”.
She added: “The Trump administration has not so far been inclined to worry about international law when intervening overseas, so it is unlikely to change any of its plans in order to comply.”
A Ministry of Defence spokesperson said: “There is a political process ongoing between the US and Iran, which the UK supports. Iran must never be able to develop a nuclear weapon, and our priority is security in the region.”