The UK could face fuel rationing if tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, a former BP strategist and government adviser has warned, urging ministers to prepare for potential energy shortages linked to the Iran conflict.
Nick Butler, former head of strategy at BP and a Downing Street adviser during Gordon Brown’s premiership, said the government should already be planning for a possible disruption to oil and gas supplies.
His warning comes as fighting in the region raises fears about the security of the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most critical shipping routes for energy supplies — after Iran responded to US-Israeli strikes.
Butler said ministers should expect the possibility of shortages if the conflict continues.
“There would be a real shortage, a physical shortage, of supply in a few weeks’ time,” he said.
“How long that goes on, we don’t know. But I think the government here, and other governments, must now be preparing for a significant shortfall of supply over the next two months.”
The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments, meaning any disruption could have major consequences for international energy markets and domestic fuel supplies.
Butler warned that the UK could be forced to introduce measures similar to those seen during the fuel protests in 2000, when blockades at refineries led to panic buying and shortages across the country.
He said the crisis could ultimately require “a form of rationing”.
“We learnt from the tanker drivers dispute in 2000 that oil and gas supplies are absolutely crucial to the running of the economy and you can’t bring on new supplies quickly,” he said.
Speaking to BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, Butler stressed that the government must prioritise essential services if supplies tighten.
“In the short term, we have to look at what supply we have and look at the crucial sectors – the health service, food supply, hospitals – those are key elements that must be protected.
“And beyond that, it is then for the government to decide how to ration what is left – if we get to that situation.”
He also warned that escalating tensions in the Middle East could trigger sharp fluctuations in energy prices as countries compete for limited supplies.
The warning came as Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer announced measures aimed at easing pressure on households facing rising energy costs.
Speaking from Downing Street, Starmer said the government was working with international partners to ensure shipping routes remain open and announced financial support for vulnerable households relying on heating oil.
“I’m announcing immediate support for vulnerable heating oil customers today, providing £53m for those households that are most exposed,” he said.
“This government will always support working people. That is my first instinct, my first priority, to help you with the cost of living throughout this crisis.”
The government also confirmed it is in discussions with allies about efforts to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, as concerns grow that any prolonged disruption could push global oil prices higher and deepen the cost-of-living pressures facing UK households.