Growing pressure from Donald Trump is exposing a critical weakness in the UK and Europe’s energy security, as tensions over the Iran conflict intensify and key supply routes remain disrupted.
Despite insisting they will not be drawn into the war, European leaders now face mounting economic and diplomatic strain as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatens global energy supplies.
Oil and gas prices have surged since the conflict began, raising concerns that Europe could face shortages similar to those experienced during the Covid pandemic and the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Jan Rosenow, professor at the University of Oxford, warned that already tight supplies could lead to further “dramatic” price rises if disruptions continue.
He also cautioned that reliance on US energy exports leaves Europe vulnerable, noting that any reduction in supply could “send [European] markets into a tailspin”.
Trump has escalated pressure on allies, signalling that support for Ukraine and NATO could be reconsidered if Europe does not take a stronger role.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington may “re-examine” its relationship with NATO, describing Europe’s response as “very disappointing”.
Meanwhile, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stressed the importance of reopening the key shipping route, saying: “Everybody agrees this strait cannot stay closed. It has to open up again as soon as possible.”
While the UK and European allies could technically deploy naval forces to secure the strait, experts warn such action would be costly, risky and limited by available resources.
Jurgen Ehle said: “We only have so many ships,” highlighting the strain on European naval capabilities.
Similarly, Bence Nemeth noted that although the UK could deploy Type 45 destroyers, doing so would risk weakening national defence and NATO commitments.
Experts also warned that even a small naval deployment may be insufficient to secure the route, with thousands of vessels currently stranded and vulnerable to attack.
Nearly 2,000 ships remain stuck in the Gulf, many carrying vital oil and gas supplies, increasing the urgency of reopening the route.
However, any military intervention carries significant risks to personnel and equipment, particularly given the threat of drone and missile attacks.
For now, the UK and its European allies appear reluctant to engage directly in the conflict, instead focusing on defensive and diplomatic support.
Experts suggest that while Europe may avoid direct involvement in the war, it could play a role in securing the Strait of Hormuz once active fighting subsides.
Existing frameworks, such as previous European maritime missions, could be revived to support stability in the region.
In the meantime, European leaders hope their current support for US operations will ease pressure from Washington, even as the crisis continues to test both transatlantic relations and energy resilience.