Households across the UK could face higher energy bills, food prices and flight costs for at least eight months after the end of the ongoing US-Israel conflict with Iran, a senior government minister has warned.
Darren Jones said the government is preparing for prolonged economic disruption linked to the war, with officials monitoring risks to supply chains, fuel availability and global transport routes.
The conflict has significantly disrupted energy production and shipping across the Middle East, with reduced output and restricted transport routes driving up global costs for oil, gas and key imports. This is already feeding through into higher prices in the UK economy.
Government planning documents have outlined worst-case scenarios that include potential food shortages by summer if the conflict continues, particularly affecting products such as chicken and pork. Ministers have also been working on contingency plans for possible disruption to carbon dioxide supplies, which are essential for food production and preservation.
Speaking on the BBC’s *Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg*, Jones said the most likely outcome for UK consumers is sustained price pressure rather than empty shelves. He warned that the economic impact of the war could take months to fully reach households.
He said: “Our best estimate is eight months or more from the point of resolution before the economic effects fully work through the system,” adding that higher energy costs, food inflation and increased flight prices are all likely outcomes.
The government has set up a dedicated emergency planning committee chaired by Prime Minister Keir Starmer to monitor risks and coordinate responses. Ministers are meeting regularly to assess stock levels and supply chain pressures.
Jones, who leads contingency planning meetings, said the government is trying to reduce disruption where possible. He added that while the UK is not directly involved in the conflict, global markets mean domestic prices are still being affected.
International organizations have also warned of economic fallout. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently downgraded UK growth forecasts, citing the energy shock and wider instability linked to the war.
The disruption has raised concerns about potential shortages of CO2, which is used in food production and packaging, as well as in the drinks and hospitality industries. The government has supported efforts to restart domestic production at the Ensus bioethanol plant to strengthen supply resilience.
Industry sources have said UK supermarkets and airlines are currently managing supplies, with no immediate shortages reported, although both sectors are preparing for continued volatility in fuel and transport costs.
The conflict has also raised concerns about global shipping routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for oil exports. Any prolonged closure could further increase energy prices worldwide.
Economists warn that sustained high energy and transport costs could continue to push up inflation in the UK, affecting everything from supermarket prices to airline tickets and household bills over the coming months.