Air fares across Europe are expected to rise this summer as airlines struggle with soaring jet fuel costs linked to disruption in the Middle East, according to aviation chief Willie Walsh.
The former British Airways boss, who now leads the International Air Transport Association (IATA), warned that higher ticket prices are “inevitable” as airlines face mounting fuel expenses during the peak holiday season.
Although some carriers have recently lowered fares due to weaker demand, Walsh said airlines would not be able to absorb rising costs indefinitely.
“Over time it’s inevitable that the high price of oil will be reflected in higher ticket prices,” Walsh told the BBC.
The warning comes as concerns grow over potential jet fuel shortages following disruption caused by the US-Israeli conflict with Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping route.
The sharp rise in oil and fuel prices has increased pressure on airlines across the UK and Europe, which rely heavily on imported jet fuel from the Middle East.
Walsh said the biggest challenge would come during the busy summer travel period when demand for flights and fuel increases sharply.
“I think the major problem facing the UK is timing. You normally expect to see a 25% increase in flights and fuel requirements in the months of July and August versus, let’s say, March,” he said.
“I think the concern will be that if sufficient alternative supply isn’t sourced, there may be some shortages when we get into the peak summer period.”
Despite the concerns, Walsh said there was no immediate reason for passengers to panic and suggested widespread flight cancellations could still be avoided.
However, he warned that the impact of the crisis may continue well beyond this summer.
“Whichever way you look at it, I think this issue will continue for a number of months to come, and may indeed continue into next year,” he said.
Some long-haul flight prices have already started to increase as airlines react to rising operational costs.
In response to supply concerns, European authorities have been searching for alternative fuel sources.
Last week, the European Union confirmed there was no regulatory obstacle preventing airlines from using US-grade jet fuel, provided the transition is managed carefully.
EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen also warned this week that although there is currently no immediate threat to fuel supplies, shortages could emerge later.
Meanwhile, travel company Tui said it does not currently expect major shortages in the coming months.
The UK government has also introduced temporary measures allowing airlines to consolidate passengers from multiple flights onto fewer aircraft in an effort to reduce fuel consumption.
According to aviation analytics company Cirium, airlines have already cancelled 296 departures from UK airports this month, representing around 0.75% of scheduled flights.
Separately, the Home Office announced that children aged eight and nine will soon be allowed to use e-gates when returning to the UK from abroad, provided they are accompanied by an adult and meet the minimum height requirement of 120cm.
The rule change, which comes into effect on 8 July, is expected to allow up to 1.5 million more children to use airport e-gates.