Airports across Europe have raised concerns that jet fuel shortages could emerge within three weeks if oil supplies fail to resume through the Strait of Hormuz, sparking fears of flight cancellations across the UK and EU during the peak summer travel season.
The warning suggests that disruption to Middle East oil flows could quickly impact aviation fuel availability, potentially forcing airlines to cancel services and disrupt travel plans for millions of passengers.
Airports Council International (ACI) Europe has written to EU energy and transport commissioners warning that the bloc could face a serious shortage of jet fuel if supply routes are not restored.
The organisation said Europe is now just weeks away from a potential fuel crisis if shipments from the Gulf do not restart, raising the prospect of widespread disruption to airline operations.
“If the passage through the Strait of Hormuz does not resume in a significant and stable way within the next three weeks, a systemic jet fuel shortage is set to become a reality for the EU,” the letter warned.
Oil and jet fuel prices have surged since the escalation of conflict in the Middle East earlier this year, following attacks linked to tensions involving the US, Israel and Iran.
Brent crude has climbed to around $96 a barrel, up sharply from about $72 before the crisis. Global jet fuel prices have more than doubled compared with last year, reaching around $1,650 per tonne, according to International Air Transport Association (IATA) data.
Asia has seen the steepest increase, with prices up 163% year on year, while European prices have risen by around 138%, reflecting intense global competition for fuel supplies.
Transport economists have warned that airlines may be forced to reduce services within weeks if fuel stocks continue to fall.
Rico Luman, senior transport economist at ING, said smaller airports would be most vulnerable due to limited storage capacity, typically covering only four to five weeks of demand.
He added that airlines would likely cut lower-demand leisure routes first, as carriers attempt to minimise disruption to high-volume services.
Some smaller airlines have already begun reducing operations. Skybus recently suspended its Newquay to London Gatwick route, while Aurigny has cut flights between the Channel Islands and destinations including London City, Paris and south-west England.
International carriers including Air New Zealand, AirAsia X, Vietnam Airlines and SAS have also reduced services due to rising fuel costs.
Ryanair chief executive Michael O’Leary said the airline is considering cutting up to 10% of its flights if conditions worsen.
Europe relies heavily on Gulf refineries for jet fuel, with more than 60% of supply historically sourced from the region. Over 40% of that supply is transported via the Strait of Hormuz, making it a critical global shipping route.
Industry analysts warn that alternative supply routes are limited, particularly for refined jet fuel, leaving aviation more exposed than other energy markets.
The disruption comes at a particularly sensitive time, ahead of the peak summer travel season when demand for flights across Europe and the UK typically surges.
ACI Europe warned that shortages during this period could have a severe impact on tourism and wider economic activity, given the sector’s importance to many national economies.
Willie Walsh, director general of IATA, said that even if the Strait of Hormuz remains open, it could take months for supply chains to stabilise due to disruption to Middle Eastern refining capacity.
He warned that the aviation sector remains under significant pressure, with fuel supply constraints potentially affecting pricing, capacity and long-term growth forecasts.
Before the crisis, IATA had projected passenger traffic growth of 4.9% for 2026, but industry leaders now warn that outlook may be at risk if fuel disruptions continue.