Deep cuts to foreign aid budgets by the UK, France and Germany could contribute to more than 11.5 million preventable deaths worldwide by the end of the decade, according to a major new international study warning of a growing crisis in global health and humanitarian support.
The report, produced by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health, says Europe is retreating from its long-standing role as a leading force in international development, poverty reduction and global health assistance.
Researchers warned that sharp reductions in official development assistance (ODA) from Europe’s largest donor nations could severely damage healthcare systems, food programmes and humanitarian operations across low- and middle-income countries already struggling with conflict, disease outbreaks and economic instability.
The findings come as European governments increase defence spending in response to geopolitical tensions, including the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, while reducing overseas aid commitments.
UK Facing Largest Impact From Aid Reductions
Among the three countries examined in the report, the UK is projected to have the most severe global impact from aid reductions.
Researchers estimate that cuts to British overseas development spending alone could contribute to around 5.1 million additional preventable deaths by 2030.
According to the study, UK official development assistance spending is expected to fall by 45% between 2020 and 2026.
The report warns that reductions in British funding for healthcare, humanitarian aid and reproductive health programmes could have devastating consequences in vulnerable regions across Africa, Asia and parts of Latin America.
Researchers said cuts to UK-funded sexual and reproductive health services could result in:
* 1.1 million unintended pregnancies
* 375,000 unsafe abortions
* More than 1,000 maternal deaths
The report described the scale of the cuts as a political decision with long-term human consequences rather than a simple financial adjustment.
“Aid cuts of this magnitude are not technical adjustments but political choices with lasting consequences,” the UK-focused section of the report stated.
France and Germany Also Facing Criticism
France and Germany are also expected to sharply reduce overseas aid spending over the coming years.
The report estimates France’s aid reductions could contribute to around 3.5 million additional preventable deaths by 2030.
French overseas development assistance is projected to fall by approximately 30% between 2023 and 2026.
Researchers warned that France’s decision to reduce contributions to the Global Fund could significantly affect international efforts to fight diseases such as HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria.
The study estimates that a 60% cut in French support for the Global Fund could contribute to the failure to prevent around 710,000 deaths linked to those diseases by 2028.
Germany is also facing criticism over planned spending reductions.
The report estimates that German aid cuts could contribute to nearly 2.9 million preventable deaths globally.
German aid spending as a percentage of national income has already dropped from 0.85% in 2022 to 0.67% in 2024 and is projected to fall further to around 0.52% by 2026.
Researchers warned that Germany’s planned humanitarian aid reductions could leave roughly 4 million people worldwide without food assistance.
Global Health System Facing Growing Pressure
The study warns that weakening international aid programmes could undermine the global health system at a time when the world remains vulnerable to infectious diseases, humanitarian emergencies and climate-related crises.
Researchers pointed to the recent Ebola outbreak declared a global health emergency as evidence that weakened healthcare systems in poorer countries can eventually threaten global stability and international public health.
Gonzalo Fanjul said Europe’s shift away from development spending could have consequences as serious as recent cuts to US international aid programmes.
“Much of the debate focuses on Trump and his administration, but our estimates suggest that Europe’s shifting spending priorities will prove equally devastating for some of the most vulnerable communities in the world,” Fanjul said.
He warned that reducing support for global health and humanitarian programmes could ultimately weaken the international rules-based system that European governments claim to defend.
Defence Spending Rising Across Europe
The cuts come as European governments rapidly increase military spending following growing security concerns linked to Russia, Nato commitments and instability in the Middle East.
The UK government previously announced reductions in foreign aid spending alongside plans to raise defence spending to 2.5% of GDP.
Britain is now expected to increase military spending further to around 3.5% of GDP by 2035 in line with Nato goals.
France and Germany have also committed billions of euros to defence expansion while reducing development budgets.
Researchers warned that while governments view military investment as essential for national security, reducing humanitarian and development assistance could increase long-term instability globally.
The report argues that development aid has historically helped reduce conflict, strengthen healthcare systems and limit displacement caused by poverty and instability.
“Weakening it may ultimately prove more costly than sustaining it,” the report stated.
UK Aid Spending Hits Lowest Level in Nearly Two Decades
The findings come after UK foreign aid spending recently fell to its lowest level in almost 20 years.
Britain had previously committed to spending 0.7% of gross national income on overseas aid, a target that was reduced during recent economic pressures.
Aid organisations and humanitarian groups have repeatedly warned that cuts to British assistance programmes are already affecting projects linked to food security, healthcare, refugee support and women’s health services.
Several charities argue that Britain’s international reputation as a global development leader has been damaged by the reductions.
The government, however, insists it remains committed to international development while focusing on achieving better value for taxpayers.
UK Government Defends Aid Strategy
In comments defending the reductions earlier this year, Yvette Cooper said Britain remained committed to supporting vulnerable communities globally despite financial pressures.
“Our commitment to international development is as important as ever,” she said.
Cooper argued that overseas aid remains in Britain’s national interest because global instability, conflict and poverty can affect security and prosperity at home.
The government says it is modernising development spending to ensure resources are targeted more effectively.
However, humanitarian organisations and global health experts argue that the scale of the reductions risks undermining decades of progress in healthcare, poverty reduction and disease prevention.
Concerns Over Long-Term Consequences
The report warns that reduced international aid funding could increase pressure on already fragile countries facing conflict, climate disasters and economic collapse.
Researchers fear weaker healthcare systems may struggle to respond to future pandemics, disease outbreaks and humanitarian emergencies.
Aid agencies also warn that food shortages, displacement and worsening poverty could fuel migration pressures and regional instability.
The findings are likely to intensify political debate across Europe over balancing defence spending with humanitarian responsibilities.
Global health experts say the decisions made by major European economies over the next few years could shape international development and healthcare outcomes for decades.