Diabetes cases in Wales are increasing at a faster pace than health officials previously predicted, raising concerns that tens of thousands of people may be living with the condition without knowing it.
New NHS and public health figures show that the number of adults diagnosed with diabetes across Wales is climbing rapidly, with experts warning that the country could reach projected 2035 diabetes levels years earlier than expected.
Public Health Wales (PHW) said one in five adults in Wales is now living with either diabetes or pre-diabetes, underlining the growing pressure on healthcare services and the urgent need for earlier diagnosis and prevention measures.
Medical professionals say the rising number of cases is being driven by a combination of obesity, deprivation, unhealthy lifestyles, ageing populations and genetic risk factors affecting some ethnic communities more severely than others.
Diabetes Cases in Wales Continue to Rise
According to 2025 data from Stats Wales, 230,371 adults aged 17 and over are currently living with diabetes in Wales.
Type 2 diabetes accounts for around 90% of all cases and remains the most common form of the disease.
The latest figures represent a 3.5% increase compared with 2024 and significantly exceed earlier forecasts made by Public Health Wales.
Health experts had previously estimated that diabetes cases would rise above 260,000 by 2035. However, the current pace of growth suggests that threshold could now be reached much sooner.
Alongside diagnosed diabetes cases, health officials estimate that another 269,747 people across Wales are living with pre-diabetes, a condition in which blood sugar levels are elevated but not yet high enough for a full diabetes diagnosis.
Doctors warn that without treatment or lifestyle changes, many people with pre-diabetes could eventually develop type 2 diabetes.
Undiagnosed Diabetes Raises Major Health Concerns
Public Health Wales believes that tens of thousands of people may have diabetes without being aware of it.
Undiagnosed diabetes can remain unnoticed for years while silently damaging the body.
If left untreated, the disease can lead to serious complications including kidney failure, blindness, nerve damage, heart disease, stroke and circulation problems that can result in amputations.
Health professionals are encouraging people to recognise warning signs early and seek medical advice if symptoms appear.
Common symptoms of diabetes include excessive thirst, frequent urination, fatigue, unexplained weight loss and blurred vision.
Doctors say early diagnosis can significantly reduce the risk of long-term complications and improve quality of life.
Type 2 Diabetes Increasing Among Younger Adults
Medical experts are particularly concerned about the growing number of younger adults developing type 2 diabetes.
Dr Sarah Davies said there has been a noticeable rise in cases among people in their 20s and 30s.
She warned that younger patients face a greater lifetime risk of serious complications because they are living with the condition for longer periods.
Davies also stressed that stigma surrounding obesity and type 2 diabetes remains a major obstacle preventing many people from discussing their health openly or seeking support.
She said patients often blame themselves for the condition even though many contributing factors, including genetics, deprivation and access to healthcare, are outside individual control.
Healthcare professionals are increasingly calling for a broader public health strategy focused on prevention, education and early intervention.
Ethnic Minority Communities Face Higher Risk
Doctors in Wales say some communities are disproportionately affected by diabetes. Dr Amir Ghanghro, who works in one of Cardiff’s most ethnically diverse areas, said diabetes rates among his patients are significantly higher than the national average.
While many GP practices expect around 5% of patients to have diabetes, his clinic sees rates closer to 10%.
Ghanghro explained that people from South Asian backgrounds often develop diabetes at younger ages and lower body weights than the wider population.
He said the disease can also be more aggressive in these groups.
The doctor recently diagnosed a 17-year-old patient with type 2 diabetes, highlighting growing concerns about the condition appearing earlier in life.
Healthcare organisations including Muslim Doctors Cymru and Public Health Wales have launched community outreach programmes aimed at improving awareness and encouraging early testing.
Some screenings have even been carried out in mosques and local businesses to reach people who may struggle to attend traditional healthcare appointments.
Poverty and Obesity Linked to Diabetes Growth
Health experts say there is a strong connection between type 2 diabetes, obesity and social deprivation.
Communities facing economic hardship are often more likely to experience poor diet, limited access to healthy food and reduced opportunities for exercise.
Long working hours, shift work and jobs in the night-time economy can also make it harder for people to access healthcare or maintain healthy routines.
Public health officials argue that tackling diabetes requires more than simply encouraging individual lifestyle changes.
They say wider action is needed to improve nutrition, increase physical activity and reduce health inequalities across Wales.
Weight-Loss Drugs Spark Debate Over Future Treatment
Doctors also discussed the growing popularity of weight-loss medications such as Ozempic and Mounjaro.
These drugs have become increasingly common in countries such as the United States, where some experts believe they may be helping slow the growth of type 2 diabetes cases.
Davies said the medications can be highly effective for some patients but warned they are not a complete solution to the diabetes crisis.
She argued that Wales needs a broader and more holistic approach focused on prevention, healthy living and earlier diagnosis.
Healthcare leaders say medications alone cannot reverse long-term trends linked to inactivity, poor diet and social inequality.
Public Health Wales Urges Early Screening
Public Health Wales is urging people to understand their personal diabetes risk and seek early screening where appropriate.
David Taylor from the PHW Tackling Diabetes Together Programme said awareness remains critical in preventing future cases.
He said identifying people at risk early can allow lifestyle changes or treatment to delay or even prevent the development of type 2 diabetes.
Health officials are also encouraging people with a family history of diabetes to monitor their health more closely.
The condition often runs in families and genetic factors can significantly increase risk.
NHS Faces Growing Pressure From Diabetes Cases
The continued rise in diabetes cases is expected to place additional strain on NHS services across Wales.
Treating diabetes and its complications already costs the NHS billions of pounds annually across the UK.
Hospital admissions linked to diabetes complications, including heart disease, kidney failure and amputations, continue to increase.
Public health experts warn that without stronger prevention measures, healthcare systems could face even greater financial and staffing pressures in the coming years.
The latest figures have intensified calls for greater investment in prevention programmes, community health initiatives and earlier intervention services.
As diabetes rates continue to rise faster than predicted, health leaders warn that Wales faces a growing public health challenge that could affect hundreds of thousands more people in the years ahead.