The UK could see gaps on supermarket shelves this summer if disruption from the Iran conflict continues, with potential shortages of carbon dioxide raising concerns across the food and drink industry.
Ministers are preparing contingency plans for a worst-case scenario in which the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, disrupting key imports and affecting supplies of CO2 — a critical component in food production and storage.
Officials from across government, including No 10, the Treasury and the Ministry of Defence, have taken part in a planning exercise known as Exercise Turnstone. The scenario explored the impact of prolonged disruption, including a continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, no peace agreement between the US and Iran, and technical failures at UK CO2 production sites.
The exercise was coordinated through the government’s Cobra emergency committee, reflecting growing concern over the resilience of supply chains during ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Carbon dioxide plays a vital role in the food industry. It is used in the processing of meat, including the humane stunning of livestock such as poultry and pigs, and in packaging to extend the shelf life of fresh produce.
It is also essential for producing fizzy drinks and beer, as well as for refrigeration systems used throughout the supply chain.
Any disruption to CO2 supplies could therefore impact a wide range of products, from fresh meat and packaged foods to soft drinks and alcohol — particularly at a time when demand is expected to rise ahead of major summer events.
The Business Secretary, Peter Kyle, said the public should be reassured that contingency planning is under way, stressing that CO2 supplies are not currently a concern.
He also highlighted government action to strengthen resilience, including a £100 million investment to reopen the Ensus bioethanol plant on Teesside, a key domestic source of CO2.
Officials say such measures are designed to prevent shortages and protect supply chains if disruption continues.
Retail leaders have sought to calm fears of immediate shortages. Ken Murphy, chief executive of Tesco, said the company has not seen any issues with CO2 availability in its supply chain so far.
He added that supermarkets have strengthened their resilience in recent years, learning from challenges such as the pandemic and Brexit, and are prepared to respond quickly to disruptions.
Beyond food production, CO2 is also used in healthcare, including surgical procedures and MRI scans, as well as in industrial processes such as cooling systems in energy infrastructure.
Experts warn that prolonged disruption in global shipping routes, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, could have far-reaching effects on multiple sectors of the UK economy.
While there are currently no widespread shortages, the situation remains closely monitored. Government officials stress that worst-case scenarios are part of standard planning and do not necessarily reflect what will happen.
However, with global supply chains under pressure and geopolitical tensions ongoing, businesses and policymakers alike are preparing for potential disruption in the months ahead.