Rising fuel prices and fertiliser costs linked to the war involving Iran and neighbouring Gulf states are placing mounting pressure on UK farmers, with some warning that food production could become economically unviable if volatility continues.
Farmers across the UK say the rapid increase in input costs — particularly fertiliser, red diesel and energy — is creating uncertainty ahead of a long growing season, with fears that the situation could eventually impact national food security.
Impact of Fuel Prices and Fertiliser Costs on UK Farmers
Frankie Colwill, a 39-year-old arable farmer based in Little Witley in Worcestershire, says the full impact of rising costs has yet to hit — but the outlook is increasingly worrying. Managing 650 acres across his family farm and neighbouring land, he grows wheat, oilseed rape and borage, a crop used in cosmetic oil production.
While his current reserves of fuel and fertiliser offer temporary relief, he says future purchasing decisions are causing significant concern.
“We’re having conversations about the next purchases and I’m having some big palpitations,” he said, describing the situation as “ominous” as the season progresses.
Colwill highlighted a dramatic rise in fertiliser costs, noting that a lorry load of urea he purchased for £358 per tonne last year is now quoted at £650 for protected urea — far exceeding typical price increases.
He also questioned whether market dynamics are being influenced by opportunistic pricing rather than actual supply shortages, pointing out that much of the UK’s fertiliser stock had already been imported before the escalation in the Middle East.
Rising Input Costs Threaten Agricultural Viability
David Edwards, who runs a seaweed fertiliser business near Ludlow supplying farms across the UK, warned that escalating input costs could push farmers to reconsider planting altogether.
“It’s getting to a stage that it’s uneconomical to actually be planting the fields,” he said, cautioning that reduced production could lead to food shortages if the trend continues.
The rising costs of chemical fertilisers, fuel and crop protection products are significantly increasing the financial risk associated with farming — particularly in a sector already vulnerable to weather conditions and fluctuating market prices.
Colwill described farming as “professional gambling,” explaining that once crops are planted, farmers are locked into a cycle of spending with no certainty of returns. After a difficult previous year marked by low profits and adverse weather, many are entering the current season in a financially fragile position.
Global Conflict and Agricultural Supply Chains
The ongoing conflict involving Iran has contributed to instability in global energy markets, directly affecting the price of oil and natural gas — key inputs in fertiliser production and agricultural operations.
Fertilisers, particularly nitrogen-based products like urea, are heavily dependent on natural gas for production. As energy prices rise, fertiliser manufacturing and transportation costs increase, creating a ripple effect throughout the agricultural supply chain.
This interdependence means geopolitical tensions can quickly translate into higher costs for farmers, even when physical supply levels remain stable.
Shift Toward Local and Sustainable Alternatives
Amid rising chemical fertiliser costs, Edwards says demand for natural alternatives is increasing. His business, which produces fertiliser from seaweed harvested in UK waters, has seen a surge in sales.
By relying on locally sourced materials, such products are less exposed to global price fluctuations and supply chain disruptions.
“We haven’t put our prices up for a couple of years,” he said, adding that maintaining stable pricing is part of supporting farmers through volatile conditions.
The trend reflects a broader shift within agriculture toward more sustainable and resilient input sources, although scalability and yield performance remain key considerations for widespread adoption.
Farmers Caught Between Rising Costs and Market Prices
Despite rising input costs, farmers often have little control over the prices they receive for their crops. Colwill noted that farmers are typically “price takers rather than price makers,” meaning market forces dictate sale prices regardless of production costs.
This imbalance is leaving many farmers squeezed between escalating expenses and uncertain revenues.
“We could just be shooting ourselves in the foot here doing a lot of work for nothing,” he said, describing the situation as increasingly demoralising.
With crop prices failing to keep pace with rising costs, profitability is under pressure — raising concerns about the long-term sustainability of farming operations.
Calls for Government Support and Policy Intervention
Industry voices are calling for greater government support to safeguard domestic food production. Edwards stressed the importance of maintaining food security and ensuring farmers can continue operating despite economic pressures.
Proposals include increased subsidies, targeted financial support and policies aimed at stabilising input costs or improving supply chain resilience.
The issue is gaining urgency as global uncertainties — from geopolitical conflicts to climate-related disruptions — continue to affect agricultural systems.
UK Agriculture Under Pressure from Energy and Climate Shocks
UK agriculture has faced a series of challenges in recent years, including rising energy costs, supply chain disruptions following global events, and extreme weather patterns such as droughts and heatwaves.
The 2025 growing season, described by some farmers as unusually hot and dry, has already impacted crop yields and profitability. These environmental pressures, combined with economic volatility, are intensifying concerns about the resilience of the sector.
Historically, spikes in oil and gas prices have had a direct impact on fertiliser costs and agricultural output. The current situation echoes previous periods of global instability, where energy market fluctuations led to increased food prices and supply constraints.
As the UK seeks to balance environmental goals with food security, the ability of farmers to absorb rising costs while maintaining production remains a critical issue for policymakers and industry stakeholders alike.