The growing UK jet fuel shortage risk has raised alarm across the aviation sector, with industry leaders warning that Britain is the most vulnerable country in Europe to supply disruptions as the Iran war continues to affect energy flows from the Gulf.
According to Michael O’Leary, the UK faces a heightened UK jet fuel shortage risk due to its reliance on imports from Kuwait, which account for roughly a quarter of the country’s aviation fuel supply.
The warning comes as global markets react to escalating tensions in the Middle East, with airlines already facing rising costs and growing uncertainty over fuel availability in the months ahead.
Heavy reliance on Gulf fuel supplies
The UK jet fuel shortage risk is largely driven by Britain’s dependence on external energy sources, particularly from Gulf producers.
O’Leary noted that while there may still be sufficient jet fuel available in the Middle East, transporting it to Europe has become increasingly difficult due to disruptions in key shipping routes.
The situation has been worsened by instability around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime corridor through which more than 20% of the world’s oil supply typically passes.
As a result, even if fuel is available at source, logistical bottlenecks could significantly affect supply chains reaching the UK.
Surge in jet fuel prices adds pressure
The UK jet fuel shortage risk is compounded by a sharp increase in global fuel prices.
Jet fuel prices recently surged to around $195 per barrel, more than double the average seen last year, according to the International Air Transport Association.
Although oil prices showed signs of easing after geopolitical signals suggested a possible de-escalation, volatility remains high, leaving airlines exposed to sudden cost increases.
For airlines, this creates a dual challenge: managing rising operating costs while preparing for potential supply shortages.
Airlines warn of possible flight disruptions
The UK jet fuel shortage risk could translate into real-world disruption for passengers if supply constraints worsen.
Ryanair has indicated that while it has hedged a significant portion of its fuel costs, the greater concern lies in the availability of fuel rather than its price.
O’Leary warned that if even 10% to 20% of supply were disrupted during peak summer months, airlines across Europe could be forced to reduce capacity or cancel flights.
This raises the prospect of travel disruption during the busy holiday season, with airlines potentially prioritising routes and adjusting schedules to cope with limited fuel supplies.
Impact on ticket prices and travel demand
The UK jet fuel shortage risk may also influence ticket pricing and consumer behaviour.
While Ryanair has not announced immediate fare increases, the airline acknowledged that pricing ultimately depends on market conditions, including fuel costs and demand trends.
Higher operating costs, combined with strong competition on European routes, could lead to gradual price adjustments if the conflict persists.
At the same time, travel demand patterns are already shifting, with some passengers opting for destinations within Europe rather than routes affected by Middle East instability.
Calls for policy changes in UK aviation
The UK jet fuel shortage risk has reignited debate over aviation taxes and competitiveness.
Ryanair has renewed its call for the UK government to abolish Air Passenger Duty (APD), arguing that recent increases make UK travel less competitive compared to other European countries that are reducing or eliminating similar taxes.
Industry leaders warn that higher taxes, combined with supply challenges, could weaken the UK’s position as a major aviation hub.
Energy shocks and aviation vulnerability
The UK jet fuel shortage risk highlights the broader vulnerability of the aviation sector to global energy shocks.
Airlines are highly sensitive to fluctuations in fuel supply and prices, which can account for a significant portion of operating costs.
Previous crises, including the Covid-19 pandemic and the energy market disruptions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, have demonstrated how quickly supply chains can be affected by geopolitical events.
The current situation adds another layer of complexity, as the Middle East remains a central hub for global energy production and distribution.
Outlook for the summer travel season
The UK jet fuel shortage risk remains closely tied to developments in the Iran conflict and the reopening of key shipping routes.
If tensions ease and supply chains stabilise, the impact on airlines and passengers may be limited.
However, if disruptions persist into the summer, the aviation industry could face significant operational challenges, including reduced flight availability and higher travel costs.
Airlines, governments and regulators will be closely monitoring the situation in the coming weeks, as decisions made now could shape the trajectory of the 2026 travel season.